Friday, September 16, 2005

Software Hype Curve

The Gartner Group produces a large range of technology trends and predictions, based on a so-called Hype Cycle model. (The term Hype Cycle implies that things come round again. But the model is not cyclic, so it is more accurate to refer to it as a Hype Curve model.) I have just been looking at a Gartner document that includes curves for 1995 and 2005.

I have posted some comments on my Demanding Change blog (formerly known as Innovation Matters) concerning the degree of rigour and empirical support underpinning Gartner's analysis. What I want to comment on here are some specifics about some of the software technologies we've been tracking ourselves.

Interrelated technologies SOA is just entering the trough of disillusionment. but will be plateau-ing in 2-5 years.Web Services-enabled Business Models is a bit further behind. Meanwhile Internal Web Services is reaching the plateau of productivity. When technologies are interrelated, there is likely to be some temporal coupling between their dissemination and adoption.
Implied technologies
MDD hasn't peaked yet, apparently. Some analysts are predicting that MDD will peak when Microsoft actually ships its DSL + Software Factory products.
Gartner's selection of technologies omits some key enablers.
Vendor-specific technologies
At present, DSL + Software Factory is a Microsoft-specific initiative.
Gartner tries to talk about all technologies as if they were vendor-independent, but this doesn't always work.
Absent technologies
CBD (CBSE) doesn't get a mention. Perhaps some people now see it as having been a blind alley, while others see it as common-sense design.
CBD (CBSE) clearly means different things to different people.
Deja vu technologies
Some might consider we have been through the MDD hype curve once. Except it was called CASE the first time. Plus ca change ...
So maybe it should be a Hype Cycle after all!

Based on discussion with John Dodd, Oliver Sims and Lawrence Wilkes.

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