I have posted some comments on my Demanding Change blog (formerly known as Innovation Matters) concerning the degree of rigour and empirical support underpinning Gartner's analysis. What I want to comment on here are some specifics about some of the software technologies we've been tracking ourselves.
|Issue ||Example ||Comment |
|Interrelated technologies||SOA is just entering the trough of disillusionment. but will be plateau-ing in 2-5 years.Web Services-enabled Business Models is a bit further behind. Meanwhile Internal Web Services is reaching the plateau of productivity.||When technologies are interrelated, there is likely to be some temporal coupling between their dissemination and adoption. |
|Implied technologies ||MDD hasn't peaked yet, apparently. Some analysts are predicting that MDD will peak when Microsoft actually ships its DSL + Software Factory products. ||Gartner's selection of technologies omits some key enablers. |
|Vendor-specific technologies ||At present, DSL + Software Factory is a Microsoft-specific initiative. ||Gartner tries to talk about all technologies as if they were vendor-independent, but this doesn't always work. |
|Absent technologies ||CBD (CBSE) doesn't get a mention. Perhaps some people now see it as having been a blind alley, while others see it as common-sense design. ||CBD (CBSE) clearly means different things to different people. |
|Deja vu technologies ||Some might consider we have been through the MDD hype curve once. Except it was called CASE the first time. Plus ca change ... ||So maybe it should be a Hype Cycle after all! |
Based on discussion with John Dodd, Oliver Sims and Lawrence Wilkes.